Is The Military Draft Coming Back?

Is the military draft coming back 2026?

I get it. The thought of the military draft coming back is enough to make anyone break out in a cold sweat. I mean, the idea of being forced to serve in the armed forces, leaving behind your family, friends, and the life you’ve built? It’s the stuff of nightmares, right?

But here’s the thing: the military draft hasn’t been used in the United States since 1973. That’s right, it’s been over 50 years since the last time anyone was drafted into the military. So why are we even talking about it now?

Well, the truth is, the Selective Service System, which is the agency responsible for maintaining a list of potential draftees, is still very much alive and well. It’s required by law for all men between the ages of 18 and 25 to register with the Selective Service, just in case the draft is ever reinstated.

Is the Military Draft Coming Back?

The idea of the military draft coming back has been making waves lately. With tensions rising in various parts of the world, some are wondering if the U.S. will reinstate mandatory conscription.

Globally, several countries are revisiting their conscription policies due to escalating conflicts. For instance:

Israel: Long accustomed to mandatory service, Israel is debating extending service for reservists amidst its ongoing conflict with Hamas and Hezbollah. Recent legal changes could also see the ultra-Orthodox population included in the draft.
Ukraine: In response to the persistent Russian invasion, Ukraine has expanded its draft to bolster its military forces.
Russia: Facing significant losses in Ukraine, Russia has broadened its compulsory military service.
Baltic States: Latvia revived the draft in 2023 following Russia‘s aggressive actions, while Lithuania did so in 2015. Estonia has maintained its conscription policy throughout.
Taiwan: Responding to heightened threats from China, Taiwan has lengthened its conscription period.

These developments underscore a global trend of nations fortifying their military preparedness in response to regional threats, sparking renewed discussions around the draft.

What Is the Selective Service System?

The Selective Service System is the agency that maintains information on those potentially subject to military conscription. Most people aren’t aware that virtually all male U.S. citizens and male immigrants between the ages of 18 and 25 are required by law to register.

The report found that Selective Service is “a mystery to most Americans,” who were not aware that all men ages 18 to 25 have a legal obligation to register in case of a draft. Although the draft was abolished in 1973, the Selective Service registration requirement was resumed in 1980, when after the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan, a capability to conscript was again deemed critical to the national defense. The system for registering for Selective Service is passive: it occurs when you apply for your driver’s license or federal student aid. Most American males aren’t even aware that they’re registered for the draft.

How Does the Draft Work?

If Congress and the President authorized a draft:

A lottery would be conducted based on birthdays.
Draftees would be examined for mental, physical, and moral fitness for military service.
Those who pass would receive induction orders and have 10 days to report to a local Military Entrance Processing Station.
At the station, draftees would take the Oath of Enlistment and enter the armed forces.

Who Is Required to Register for Selective Service?

Almost all male U.S. citizens and immigrants ages 18 through 25 are required to register with Selective Service. This includes those born in the U.S. and those naturalized as citizens.

The report found that Selective Service is “a mystery to most Americans,” who were not aware that all men ages 18 to 25 have a legal obligation to register in case of a draft.

The penalties for failing to register can be severe, including a fine of up to $250,000, imprisonment for up to five years, and denial of federal and state benefits like student loans, government jobs, and job training. Immigrant men can be denied citizenship for failing to register.

The History of the Military Draft in the United States

The U.S. has a long history with conscription, dating back to the Civil War. But the draft as we know it today has its roots in the 20th century.

The Civil War Draft

Both the Union and Confederate armies used conscription during the Civil War. The Confederacy passed the first conscription law in American history in 1862, followed closely by the Union Enrollment Act of 1863. These laws were controversial, with riots breaking out in opposition. They also allowed wealthier citizens to avoid service by paying commutation money or hiring substitutes.

The World Wars Draft

The Selective Service Act of 1917 authorized a draft for World War I. It required men aged 21 to 30 to register. After the U.S. entered World War II in 1941, a new Selective Training and Service Act required all men 18 to 64 to register. Over 10 million men were inducted into the military through the draft during WWII. Conscription continued through the late 1940s for the occupations of Germany and Japan.

The Vietnam War Draft

The draft played a major role in providing manpower for the Vietnam War. The Selective Service System expanded the draft to include men between 18 and 26. Draftees accounted for about 30% of combat deaths in Vietnam. The draft became increasingly unpopular as the war dragged on, with many burning their draft cards in protest.

The End of the Draft and the All-Volunteer Force

In 1973, as U.S. involvement in Vietnam was winding down, conscription ended and the U.S. shifted to an all-volunteer force. However, the requirement for young men to register with Selective Service remained in place in case a draft was ever needed again.

The United States has not had a draft since 1973. Congress and the president would have to authorize a draft.

Since then, the U.S. military has relied on volunteers to fill its ranks, with no serious push to return to conscription. But the Selective Service System remains in place if the draft is ever deemed necessary.

Throughout history, armies have navigated the intricate balance between professionalized forces and mass conscription, adapting to the demands of warfare and technological advancements.

Professional Armies

Professionalized armies typically consist of full-time, trained soldiers who commit to military life. This approach allows for a highly skilled and disciplined military force. Nations often favor professional soldiers during times of peace or when maintaining a more compact, agile military structure is strategic. These troops are usually better equipped and more adept in specialized warfare techniques, offering a qualitative edge on the battlefield.

Mass Conscription

On the other hand, mass conscription comes into play predominantly during large-scale conflicts where sheer numbers can tip the balance. Conscription allows states to rapidly expand their military presence by drafting ordinary civilians into service. Historically, conflicts like World Wars I and II demanded such large-scale mobilizations, where the goal was to replenish the ranks swiftly and counteract substantial losses.

Technological Influence

Recent technological advancements have altered this balance once again. While there is an ongoing fascination with the prospect of reducing human involvement in conflicts through automation and drones, the reality has proven more complex. Machines offer enhanced capabilities but cannot completely replace the nuanced decision-making and adaptability of human soldiers.

Ultimately, the balance between professionalized forces and mass conscription remains fluid, shaped by historical lessons, technological progress, and the immediate requirements of warfare. This dynamic interplay reflects the evolving nature of military strategy over the centuries.

Current State of the U.S. Military and Selective Service

The U.S. military today is a far cry from the conscripted forces of the past century. Let’s look at the current makeup of the armed forces and the status of the Selective Service System.

Size and Composition of the Current U.S. Military

As of 2023, the U.S. military has about 1.4 million active duty personnel. The Army is the largest branch, followed by the Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard. The military is an all-volunteer force, with conscription not used since the Vietnam War. Women make up about 17% of the active duty force. Minorities account for about 43% of all active duty members.

The Selective Service System Today

While the draft ended in 1973, the Selective Service System remains in place. Its mission is to maintain the ability to provide manpower to the Department of Defense if a draft is ever deemed necessary.

According to the database of bills that have been proposed in the current session of Congress, only a handful even mention the Selective Service and merely in the context of keeping the agency funded.

In recent years, there have been efforts to eliminate Selective Service registration, arguing it’s an unnecessary burden since a draft is unlikely. But for now, the system remains in place.

Registering for Selective Service

By law, virtually all male U.S. citizens and immigrants ages 18 to 25 must register with Selective Service. This can be done online, by mail, or at the post office.

The system for registering for Selective Service is passive: it occurs when you apply for your driver’s license or federal student aid. Most American males aren’t even aware that they’re registered for the draft.

Failure to register is a felony punishable by a fine and imprisonment. Those who don’t register can also be denied federal student aid, federal jobs, and job training.

Factors That Could Lead to Reinstating the Draft

While bringing back the draft seems unlikely now, there are scenarios where it could be considered. Let’s examine a few potential triggers.

Major Conflict or War

A large-scale war requiring a rapid influx of troops is the most likely scenario for reinstating the draft. If the U.S. found itself in a prolonged conflict and was unable to maintain adequate troop levels with volunteers, Congress and the President could authorize a draft.

Will there be a military draft in 2023? Probably not. While world events such as the war in Ukraine and an increasing U.S. presence in Poland continue to evolve, there has been no indication that a military draft will take place in 2023.

However, short of World War III, it’s doubtful a conflict would be large enough to necessitate conscription. The U.S. military is well-staffed and equipped to handle the conflicts it’s currently engaged in.

Insufficient Volunteer Recruitment

If the military consistently fell short of its recruitment goals, there could be pressure to reinstate the draft. However, recruitment incentives and increased pay have effectively maintained adequate volunteer rates, even during the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. The military has also relaxed some entry requirements, such as allowing more recruits without high school diplomas and offering waivers for some medical conditions and criminal records.

National Emergency or Crisis

A catastrophic event like a major terrorist attack or natural disaster could create a push for a draft if it were deemed necessary for national defense. However, the U.S. military has significant reserve forces that can be called up in such emergencies. Additionally, state National Guard units can assist with disaster relief and maintaining order. It would take an unprecedented crisis for a draft to be considered in this scenario.

What Lesson Can Be Learned About the Future of Warfare from the Resurgence of the Draft?

The revival of the draft serves as a powerful reminder about the dynamics of warfare, shifting our focus from technology to the pivotal role of human resources. Too often, we find ourselves captivated by the latest military innovations—whether it’s drones, advanced missiles, or automated systems. However, the reintroduction of conscription underscores a fundamental truth: people, not machines, are at the heart of military endeavors.

Throughout history, military strategies have swung between reliance on small, specialized units and massive conscripted forces. Despite advancements in military tech, the core essence of warfare remains that human involvement is indispensable. While technology has revolutionized some aspects of how battles are conducted, the persistent need for soldiers suggests a timeless equilibrium.

The recent increase in drafting signals that as much as we dream of wars propelled by technology, the human element is irreplaceable. This resurgence suggests that despite evolving tactics and tools, the essence of warfare remains unchanged: it’s inherently human. By acknowledging this, we gain insight into the future of warfare, recognizing that a balance between technological progress and human participation is vital for any army.

Implications and Consequences of Bringing Back the Draft

Reinstating the draft would have far-reaching effects on society. Here are some of the potential impacts:

Social and Political Impact

A draft would likely be very unpopular, based on the backlash seen in the Vietnam era. There could be significant protests and social unrest. It would also raise questions of fairness and equality. Would a draft fall disproportionately on lower-income and minority communities? How would exemptions and deferments be handled? Politically, reinstating the draft would be a huge risk for any administration or Congress. It could lead to a massive backlash at the polls.

Does Conscription Foster Societal Cohesion?

The question of whether conscription, or mandatory military service, truly fosters cohesion within societies is complex. Historical evidence suggests that the impact of drafts on societal unity varies widely and is often more divisive than unifying.

Historical Examples Showing Division

In the United States, the draft during the Vietnam War triggered widespread protests and highlighted societal divides. The selective implementation of conscription often exacerbated existing tensions rather than alleviating them. This echoes the earlier Civil War era with the 1863 New York draft riots, which remain among the deadliest in the country’s history. These examples illustrate that, historically, the draft has not always been a unifying force.

International Instances

Beyond the U.S., other countries also reveal the divisive nature of conscription. Israel, for instance, despite having a draft intended to integrate its citizens, has faced significant protests rooted in political and religious differences. Similarly, in Ukraine, draft dodging incidents have been reported amid ongoing conflict, suggesting a lack of cohesion that the draft purportedly aims to bolster.

While the notion of a draft promoting unity may seem plausible in theory, historical and international examples indicate that conscription often highlights and sometimes widens societal fractures. Therefore, the evidence points to the draft as a complex tool whose effect on societal cohesion is largely context-dependent and frequently divisive.

Economic Consequences

Conscription takes young people out of the workforce and into the military. This could lead to labor shortages in some industries. It would also disrupt the lives and careers of those drafted. They would have to put their educations and jobs on hold, with no guarantee of being able to pick up where they left off. There would also be increased government spending to train and equip a larger military. This could lead to budget cuts in other areas or increased taxes.

Challenges of Voluntary Enlistment

Mobilizing manpower on a voluntary basis presents significant hurdles. Many militaries face recruitment shortages, as military service becomes an increasingly foreign concept in modern societies. For instance, the U.S. military fell short by 41,000 recruits in fiscal year 2023, despite a relatively stable global conflict environment. This shortage persists even with new incentives and adjusted goals, highlighting the difficulty of attracting volunteers.

Furthermore, the military struggles to recruit and retain individuals with highly marketable skills, such as pilots and cyber operators. These professionals are often drawn to lucrative civilian opportunities, making military service less appealing. The absence of a major conflict might temporarily mitigate these challenges, but any ongoing conflict could further deter potential recruits.

Effect on Military Readiness and Effectiveness

Draftees may not be as motivated or committed as volunteers. This could affect morale and unit cohesion. There would also be a significant burden on the military to train and integrate a large influx of conscripts. This could temporarily reduce readiness as units get new members up to speed. However, a draft could also bring a wider cross-section of society into the military, providing a broader range of skills and perspectives. And it would ensure the military has the manpower it needs for sustained operations.

Thus, both conscription and voluntary enlistment come with unique challenges that impact not only economic factors but also military readiness and effectiveness. Balancing these aspects is crucial for maintaining a capable and efficient defense force.

A draft places militarism on a leash. Currently we live in a highly militarized society but one which most of us largely perceive to be “at peace.” This is one of the great counterintuitive realities of the draft. A draft doesn’t increase our militarization. It decreases it.

Ultimately, the effectiveness of a drafted force would depend largely on the ability of military leadership to mold them into a cohesive and capable fighting force. But it would undoubtedly be a major challenge.

The Return of Conscription: What It Reveals About Modern Warfare

The re-emergence of conscription is a significant signal about the persistent nature of warfare. At its core, this development suggests that despite technological advancements, the essence of warfare still heavily relies on human participation. While innovations like drones and AI have transformed many aspects of combat, the need for soldiers on the ground remains a constant.

Shifting Focus from Technology to People

Modern warfare often highlights cutting-edge technology—be it precision-guided weapons or autonomous systems. However, the revival of the draft underscores the importance of human resources in military strategy. It prompts a reevaluation of priorities by reinforcing that people, not just machines, play a crucial role in conflict.

Historical Cycles in Military Strategy

Throughout history, military forces have toggled between highly trained professional soldiers and conscript armies. The current return to conscription reflects a time-tested pattern, suggesting that no matter how advanced technology becomes, the fundamental dynamics of military engagement — including size and readiness of forces — remain unchanged.

The Illusion of Bloodless Wars

There’s an ongoing fascination with the concept of future wars being fought with minimal human involvement. However, the resurgence of the draft challenges this notion, highlighting a reality where human sacrifices and involvement are inevitable, regardless of technological progression.

In essence, the return of conscription is a profound reminder that the core elements of warfare—manpower and strategy—are as relevant today as they were in the past. As much as technology evolves, the human aspect of warfare remains a critical component of military effectiveness.

Alternatives to Reinstating the Draft

If the military found itself short on manpower, there are alternatives to bringing back the draft. Here are a

Conclusion

So, is the military draft coming back? The short answer is: probably not. While the Selective Service System is still in place, and all men between the ages of 18 and 25 are required to register, the chances of a draft actually happening are pretty slim.