Theaters of war have changed dramatically, and this rapid evolution shows no signs of slowing. The future of drone warfare is already taking shape with advancements in drone technology and tactics. You might wonder what will change, and it’s critical to review insights from military actions taking place already.
One significant change is using drones to spot targets for artillery strikes. The future of drone warfare plays a vital role in eliminating hiding spots on the battlefield.
Table of Contents:
- The Expanding Role of Drones
- Swarm Technology: The Next Frontier in Drone Warfare
- Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) and AI Integration
- Challenges and Adaptations in Drone Warfare
- The Strategic Importance of Drones
- Economic and Strategic Shifts in Military Investments
- Conclusion
The Expanding Role of Drones
Ukraine uses “first-person view” (FPV) racing drones. These drones drop munitions down Russian tank hatches, a key takeaway from recent conflicts. Drones help identify and attack the enemy.
The machines are changing the character of war at an unprecedented speed. But drone technology keeps soldiers safer as modern methods merge with traditional warfare.
AI-Enabled Precision
Drones, with the use of AI, can more accurately determine where they will go.
New, lighter, and more compact communication systems let soldiers use smaller, more agile aerial vehicles. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) reportedly use artificial intelligence (AI) in targeting, including easier-to-use messaging systems.
Ukraine doesn’t have a large Navy fleet, so its ability to dominate the Black Sea coast has been important. Ukrainian forces have used marine drones to destroy Russian ships, keeping shipping lanes open. The Ukrainian Navy is doing remarkable work with limited resources.
Swarm Technology: The Next Frontier in Drone Warfare
Beyond single-drone operations, armies will begin to test and deploy drone swarms.
Drone swarms communicate and work together to complete a common mission. This can give a real advantage during various operational concepts and lead to a shift.
Global Interest and Development
At least eleven states have announced drone swarm programs, highlighting the interest. A 2020 New America report showed thirty-eight states with armed drone programs, along with many others with programs in development or combat operations in planning. In May 2021, Israel used Elbit Systems’ Legion-X drone swarm in combat against Hamas during the Israel-Hamas war.
These Israeli drones searched for targets and gave information to the Israel Defense Forces. Russian forces have also been developing their ability to deploy these systems.
Russian forces continue to expand their large fleet of drones. They are relying on Iranian-made drones, specifically the delta-wing Shahid 136, which can start up factory production lines in Russia.
Commercial Availability of Swarm Technology
In February 2024, Russian drone manufacturer Geoscan released a drone swarm starter kit.
This starter kit includes ten quadcopters for use with swarm intelligence algorithms. In 2022, Red Cat Holdings released its “4-Ship” product, which included six unmanned aerial vehicles for photography.
Federal Aviation Administration Part 107 regulations require operators to get a waiver to fly multiple drones at once, so the drone swarm hobbyist market in the United States will probably be small. However, in April 2022, Elbit Systems’ UK branch provided the British Ministry of Defense with five autonomous swarms.
Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCA) and AI Integration
Beyond swarming capabilities, AI has been developed for other aircraft platforms.
Advanced Aircraft and Swarming Capabilities
The Air Force is developing Collaborative Combat Aircraft (CCAs), including the Kratos XQ-58 Valkyrie. These CCAs are estimated to cost between $20.5 and $27.5 million each, reflecting the use of cutting-edge advancements in artificial intelligence.
The Air Force aims for these drones to be capable of swarming. As Stacie Pettyjohn, lead researcher at Looking Glass, shared, the advancement is happening quickly.
As computer processing develops and artificial intelligence (AI) is used on more edge systems, drone autonomy will also increase. Multiple unmanned aerial systems can work with each other with only a limited need for humans.
Challenges and Adaptations in Drone Warfare
Drones offer incredible promise, but they also have a set of unique challenges that must be accounted for and reviewed to find the best solution. These challenges will help find ways to use drones even more effectively on the battlefield.
This review offers insights and learning into new future wars.
Countermeasures and Technological Advances
Air defenses use guns and drone cannons, critical for protecting an active fighting force. The cutting edge is in electronic warfare (EW).
FPV drones struggle with signal jamming and interception, which makes them miss targets or even crash. More intelligent swarming drone attacks will incorporate electronic warfare.
Impact on Civilians and Psychological Effects
Although this may have less physical impact, it’s important to understand the impact drone deployment may have on a society of civilians.
Drones in warfare raise new types of concerns. These concerns increase from how drone deployment can and is likely to be implemented.
Table: Key Drone Warfare Technologies and Capabilities
Here is a simple table to visualize drone capabilities:
| Technology | Capability | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| FPV Drones | Drop munitions, chase targets | Disrupt enemy movements, increased precision |
| Marine Drones | Destroy ships and infrastructure | Dominate coastlines, secure shipping lanes |
| Drone Swarms | Collaborate on missions | Overwhelm air defenses, deplete resources |
| AI Integration | Autonomous navigation, target selection | Reduce human input, more efficient strikes |
The Strategic Importance of Drones
The strategic use of drones and their development show where the most significant advantages will likely occur. There are many areas where growth can happen.
Advancements have provided significant disruption. Just two short years ago, drones were considered a significant disruptor, but as drone warfare advancements progress, they are likely to grow beyond the limitations once experienced.
Domestic Production and Financial Implications
From “frankendrones” to new prototypes that are now domestically made. President Volodymyr Zelensky has predicted that Ukraine will produce one million drones in 2024.
This target has even been updated to two million, which gives an indication of the speed with which plans and technology are developing. Recently, the US Army requested $25 million to help match this effort to bolster national security.
Ukrainian forces are losing almost 10,000 drones per month. Cheap drones tend to be costly and present a huge problem with wartime costs. Western drone models costing even more.
The US Coyote costs about $125,000 per unit, which is almost twice the cost of Iranian loitering munitions, which come in at around $48,800. Because of this, the US Army is currently looking at solutions with better cost-per-kill ratios. The US has to explore different global policy options for procuring drones.
Terminal Guidance Systems and AI Assistance
Capabilities can be seen on platforms like America’s Switchblade 300. Consider also the Russian drone Ovod in the form of “terminal guidance” systems. Inexpensive drones, like Ukraine’s Scalpel drone, also provide support for finding a potential solution for drone guidance.
The use of AI will help drones be more safe in rough situations.
Currently, many unmanned aerial vehicles depend on a human operator’s inputs using a ground control station. Many operators are looking to use AI to support autonomous tasks and help to destroy enemy targets. This can even be used with navigation to identify targets better, specifically in a final strike mode.
Economic and Strategic Shifts in Military Investments
The ways financial systems play a role here could shift strategy with budgets and impact global security.
As the Times reports on the Navy’s continuous use of warships, this is also changing.
Rebalancing Military Investments
This is critical, as there is an economic view that is no longer feasible. Going forward, modern militaries should focus on increased output and productivity.
The Army has shared that they will invest in advanced drones. This is to move on from drones like Shadow and Raven unmanned aircraft.
The Army will focus on newer capabilities for unmanned systems deployment and invest further to align. This allows for a shift from manned aircraft to unmanned aircraft.